Woodberry Varsity Basketball Bracketology


Well, Tiger Nation, last night surely wasn’t what we wanted. After the best quarter of basketball that Woodberry has played all season, the Tigers couldn’t run with St. Anne’s-Belfield and fell 61-46. Another chance for a “good” win faded away, and now the Tigers’ profile is looking more bubblicious than ever. Let’s take a look at where Woodberry stands right now in the hunt for a State Playoff bid.

 

Woodberry Forest

Overall: 10-11

The issue with the overall record is, of course, the fact that Woodberry is under .500. While I’m not sure how the committee looks at overall records, I have a problem with teams losing more than they win. I was against 5-7 teams making bowl games in college football, and I feel similarly about high school basketball in the state playoffs.

IMG_1709

The Tigers have won 10 of 15 after an 0-6 start. Can they close the season strong and steal a state playoff bid?

Conference: 6-6 (4th)

With the loss last night, Woodberry locked in to fourth place in the Prep League. First off, finishing in 4th isn’t bad at all because that puts Woodberry right in the middle–neither on the top tier nor the bottom tier. Plus, finishing in fourth ensures that the Tigers will host their first game in the Prep League tournament (against Collegiate next Tuesday, but more on that in a bit). Finishing at .500 isn’t fantastic in conference, but it’s not a con either; if anything, this may be a stat that the committee with only glance over.

MaxPreps Quality Rating: 8.5 (9th out of 14 in Division I)

This ranking doesn’t mean that much because it will probably drop a bit after the loss to STAB. However, the bottom line is that there isn’t much margin for error for the Tigers. This rating doesn’t say that the Tigers will or will not get in. Instead, it simply states what we all know–the Tigers are very, very on the bubble.

MaxPreps Strength of Schedule Rating: 9.1 (9th in Division I)

The Tigers strength of schedule rating has gone down due to the recent decline of Fork Union and Christchurch. While this rating doesn’t mean that much, it does show that the Tigers schedule is hovering right around the middle of Division I. Therefore, if the Tigers close the regular season at 10-12 heading into the Prep League tournament, they may not have the argument of a tough schedule to bank on.

Good Wins: None

Here’s where everything gets complicated. In terms of beating the teams that Woodberry’s supposed to, the Tigers have done everything they’ve needed to do. The issue is that they haven’t done more than the bear minimum. The six conference losses are all sweeps against STAB, St. Christopher’s, and Trinity Episcopal. While one could argue that Woodberry was competitive in four of those six losses (the home defeats against STAB and Trinity are a black eye), close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and bocce ball. The committee isn’t looking for close; they’re looking for teams that got it done. Take a look at Collegiate–the Cougars were able to pick up a home win by 15-points over Trinity a week ago. While that’s their only quality win and Collegiate did get swept by Woodberry, they have something the Tigers don’t have…a shiny, big win on their resume. (Also, note that Collegiate won at Steward earlier this season. If the final playoff spot comes down to these two teams, then how Woodberry fares against Steward on Friday could be the deciding factor.)

Bad Losses: vs. Bishop Ireton

Listing Bishop Ireton as a bad loss isn’t that fair to Woodberry, mainly because at the time these two played the Cardinals were a strong-looking team. However, since conference play has begun, Bishop Ireton has lost 13 of 15 (against the toughest schedule in Division I) and has dropped to 7-21 overall. Sure, this game was the second of the year for the Tigers. However, the committee will look at it equally along with the rest of Woodberry’s non-conference schedule. Whether that’s fair or not isn’t important; that’s the reality. The good news for the Tigers is that they didn’t slip in conference. While all six losses were sweeps, so were all six wins. Despite the closeness of the scores, dual victories over FUMA, Collegiate, and (to a lesser extent) Christchurch could provide Woodberry with some extra ammo when the committee meets to decide the state playoff field.

January 16, 2016.  Woodberry Forest Varsity Basketball vs Landon School.

The Tigers could be sweating it out on Selection Day. It all depends on how Woodberry closes the season.

Gray’s Pick: In or Out?

In, but by a thread. Right now, the Tigers are barely hanging on. A loss against Steward might tip the scale considering that Steward is a Division II team listed as one of the “others receiving votes” squads. If anything, Woodberry has to win Friday against Steward and then has to beat Collegiate to feel good (plus, with the sudden rise of Collegiate, that first round Prep League tournament game has gotten much more important for both teams). A loss in either of those two games means that Craig Dawson’s squad will be sweating it out on Selection Day and, despite how well Woodberry has closed down the stretch after an 0-6 start, that would certainly be a disappointing predicament for a team that came in to the season with a lot of promise.

 

Bracketology 3/9/15


After the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time for championship week. I’ll be in Nashville working at the SEC Basketball Tournament, but I’ll have my eye on what’s going on around the country. My next bracket will be posted on Thursday night, with some bubble updates coming every day. The final bracket will be posted on Saturday night. Here’s my updated Bracketology!

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 Montana/Lafayette

 

8 Iowa

9 Oregon

 

5 North Carolina

12 Texas/Indiana

 

4 West Virginia

13 Central Michigan

 

6 Providence

11 Boise State

 

3 Notre Dame

14 William & Mary

 

7 Ohio State

10 Davidson

 

2 Kansas

15 New Mexico State

 

West Regional

1 Villanova

16 North Florida

 

8 San Diego State

9 Dayton

 

5 Utah

12 Wofford

 

4 Louisville

13 Yale

 

6 SMU

11 Purdue

 

3 Iowa State

14 UC Davis

 

7 St. John’s

10 LSU

 

2 Wisconsin

15 St. Francis (NY)

 

South Regional

1 Duke

16 Texas Southern

 

8 Xavier

9 Colorado State

 

5 Arkansas

12 Stephen F. Austin

 

4 Northern Iowa

13 Valaparaiso

 

6 Butler

11 Ole Miss

 

3 Maryland

14 Georgia State

 

7 VCU

10 Oklahoma State

 

2 Arizona

15 Belmont

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 Coastal Carolina/Albany

 

8 Georgia

9 Cincinnati

 

5 Wichita State

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Baylor

13 Iona

 

6 Georgetown

11 Temple/Texas A&M

 

3 Oklahoma

14 NC-Central

 

7 Michigan State

10 NC State

 

2 Gonzaga

15 South Dakota State

 

Last Four In: Texas, Temple, Indiana, Texas A&M

First Four Out: BYU, Miami (FL), Tulsa, UCLA

Next Four Out: Illinois, Stanford, Murray State, Richmond

Bracketology 3/3/15


It’s bracket day! Once again, Boise State and Davidson get automatic bids because they own their respective conferences’ tiebreaker scenario. Here’s the updated bracket!

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 Texas Southern/Bucknell

 

8 San Diego State

9 Dayton

 

5 North Carolina

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Wichita State

13 Stephen F. Austin

 

6 Providence

11 Tulsa

 

3 Notre Dame

14 Toledo

 

7 VCU

10 Ole Miss

 

2 Kansas

15 South Dakota State

 

West Regional

1 Villanova

16 New Mexico State

 

8 Iowa

9 Colorado State

 

5 Arkansas

12 Murray State

 

4 Louisville

13 Harvard

 

6 SMU

11 NC State/Oregon

 

3 Baylor

14 UC Davis

 

7 Xavier

10 Texas A&M

 

2 Wisconsin

15 Charleston Southern

 

South

1 Duke

16 Albany

 

8 Michigan State

9 LSU

 

5 Butler

12 Davidson

 

4 Oklahoma

13 Valparaiso

 

6 West Virginia

11 Boise State

 

3 Maryland

14 William & Mary

 

7 St. John’s

10 Oklahoma State

 

2 Arizona

15 Sacramento State

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 St. Francis (NY)/North Florida

 

8 Georgia

9 Indiana

 

5 Northern Iowa

12 Wofford

 

4 Utah

13 Iona

 

6 Georgetown

11 Temple/Purdue

 

3 Iowa State

14 NC-Central

 

7 Ohio State

10 Cincinnati

 

2 Gonzaga

15 Georgia Southern

 

Last Four In: NC State, Oregon, Temple, Purdue

First Four Out: BYU, Texas, UCLA, Illinois

Next Four Out: Stanford, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Pittsburgh

Bracketology 3/1/15


What a Saturday! This bracket was easily my toughest to make, thanks to some conference craziness. Two teams squarely on the bubble, Davidson and Boise State, currently lead their conferences based on the tiebreaker scenarios for the A-10 and Mountain West, respectively. Therefore, since I put in all of the conference leaders as the automatic qualifiers, Davidson and Boise State are in my field as AQs. That ruffled things up a little bit. Also, after re-evaluating Temple, I realized that there really isn’t much to their resume. They’re not in the play-in game. Also, after their big win over Gonzaga, BYU has slipped in as my last team in just ahead of Stanford and UCLA, who dropped out. However, should Stanford top Oregon tonight, that might cause another shift. Here’s the full updated bracket:

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 St. Francis (NY)/New Mexico State

 

8 Iowa

9 San Diego State

 

5 North Carolina

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Utah

13 Harvard

 

6 Providence

11 Purdue/Oregon

 

3 Notre Dame

14 Toledo

 

7 Ohio State

10 Cincinnati

 

2 Kansas

15 South Dakota State

 

West Regional

1 Villanova

16 North Florida

 

8 Colorado State

9 Dayton

 

5 Arkansas

12 Davidson

 

4 Louisville

13 Iona

 

6 SMU

11 NC State

 

3 Oklahoma

14 NC-Central

 

7 Xavier

10 Ole Miss

 

2 Wisconsin

15 Charleston Southern

 

South Regional

1 Duke

16 Albany

 

8 Georgia

9 St. John’s

 

5 Northern Iowa

12 Murray State

 

4 Iowa State

13 Valparaiso

 

6 West Virginia

11 Boise State

 

3 Maryland

14 William & Mary

 

7 VCU

10 Oklahoma State

 

2 Gonzaga

15 Sacramento State

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 Texas Southern/Bucknell

 

8 Michigan State

9 LSU

 

5 Butler

12 Wofford

 

4 Wichita State

13 Stephen F. Austin

 

6 Georgetown

11 Temple/BYU

 

3 Baylor

14 UC Davis

 

7 Indiana

10 Texas A&M

 

2 Arizona

15 Georgia Southern

 

Last Four In: Purdue, Oregon, Temple, BYU

First Four Out: UCLA, Stanford, Texas, Tulsa

Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Miami (FL), Kansas State

Bracketology 2/27/15


We’re getting so close to Selection Sunday! Only a few more weeks. Before I go any further, a quick shout-out to the Mountain Brook basketball team on making the State Championship for the third consecutive year (#BeatHoover)! As for the bubble, well, Texas continued its fall down my bracket. They barely squeaked in for now; one more loss, though, and the Longhorns will probably be out. Here’s my updated bracket!

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 Bucknell/St. Francis (NY)

8 San Diego State

9 Michigan State

5 North Carolina

12 Harvard

4 Baylor

13 Iona

6 VCU

11 Cincinnati

3 Maryland

14 William & Mary

7 Providence

10 LSU

2 Kansas

15 Louisiana-Monroe

West Regional

1 Gonzaga

16 New Mexico State

8 Ole Miss

9 Iowa

5 Butler

12 Wofford

4 Notre Dame

13 Stephen F. Austin

6 SMU

11 Oregon/Davidson

3 Iowa State

14 NC-Central

7 Xavier

10 Dayton

2 Wisconsin

15 South Dakota State

South Regional

1 Duke

16 Albany

8 Colorado State

9 Georgia

5 Louisville

12 Murray State

4 Northern Iowa

13 Valparaiso

6 West Virginia

11 Purdue

3 Utah

14 Eastern Washington

7 Ohio State

10 NC State

2 Villanova

15 UC Davis

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 Texas Southern/North Florida

8 Oklahoma State

9 Temple

5 Arkansas

12 UCLA/Texas

4 Wichita State

13 Central Michigan

6 Georgetown

11 Texas A&M

3 Oklahoma

14 Louisiana Tech

7 Indiana

10 St. John’s

2 Arizona

15 High Point

Last Four In: Oregon, Texas, UCLA, Davidson

First Four Out: Stanford, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Tulsa

Next Four Out: BYU, Boise State, Rhode Island, Massachusetts

Bracketology 2/24/15


We’re inside three weeks until Selection Sunday! I don’t know about you, but I cannot wait. The biggest issue with this week’s bracket came with one spot left in the bracket and UCLA, Stanford, and Pittsburgh all fighting for it. While I am a believer in the Panthers, and I think they could be that team that sneaks in this year, I decided to stick in the Bruins despite their 16-12 record. Stanford is listed as 9-6 against the RPI Top 100, but take a closer look: you’ll find that 7 of those wins are against teams with an RPI between 80-100. Plus, the Cardinal were swept by UCLA. As for Pittsburgh, the poor non-conference SOS knocked them out for me…well, that and the losses. When I say Pittsburgh has bad losses, I mean horrendous. At Virginia Tech? At Hawaii? Come on, Pitt. Either way, this week’s bracket was a tough one. Let me know what you think.

 

Big Movers Up: Michigan State (9 to 7)

Big Movers Down: Texas (8 to 10), Oklahoma State (6 to 8)

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 Bucknell/ Texas Southern

 

8 Xavier

9 Dayton

 

5 Louisville

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Maryland

13 Iona

 

6 Providence

11 Purdue/Oregon

 

3 Notre Dame

14 Northeastern

 

7 San Diego State

10 LSU

 

2 Kansas

15 Florida Gulf Coast

 

South Regional

1 Duke

16 Albany

 

8 Indiana

9 Colorado State

 

5 Baylor

12 Harvard

 

4 Northern Iowa

13 Toledo

 

6 West Virginia

11 Cincinnati

 

3 Utah

14 UC Davis

 

7 Butler

10 Texas A&M

 

2 Wisconsin

15 NC-Central

 

West Regional

1 Gonzaga

16 Sacramento State

 

8 Ohio State

9 Temple

 

5 Arkansas

12 Illinois/UCLA

 

4 North Carolina

13 Stephen F. Austin

 

6 SMU

11 NC State

 

3 Iowa State

14 Wofford

 

7 Ole Miss

10 Texas

 

2 Villanova

15 South Dakota State

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 St. Francis (NY)/New Mexico State

 

8 Oklahoma State

9 Iowa

 

5 VCU

12 Murray State

 

4 Wichita State

13 Valparaiso

 

6 Georgetown

11 Georgia

 

3 Oklahoma

14 Georgia State

 

7 Michigan State

10 St. John’s

 

2 Arizona

15 High Point

 

Last Four In: Purdue, Oregon, Illinois, UCLA

First Four Out: Stanford, Pittsburgh, Davidson, Tulsa

Next Four Out: Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Old Dominion, Boise State

Bracketology 2/20/15


Here’s the updated Bracketology. Once again, the One and Two Seeds are the easiest to figure out. For me, the toughest seed lines to figure out each week are the Threes and Fours. All of those teams have very similar resumes, and it’s difficult to discern all of them from each other. Let me know your thoughts on the bracket and tell me where I’m right or wrong.

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 Bucknell/St. Francis (NY)

 

8 Dayton

9 Temple

 

5 Louisville

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Northern Iowa

13 Wofford

 

6 Butler

11 Texas A&M

 

3 Notre Dame

14 UC Davis

 

7 Indiana

10 Cincinnati

 

2 Kansas

15 High Point

 

West Regional

1 Gonzaga

16 Florida Gulf-Coast

 

8 Texas

9 Michigan State

 

5 Arkansas

12 Harvard

 

4 North Carolina

13 Iona

 

6 VCU

11 St. John’s/Stanford

 

3 Iowa State

14 Stephen F. Austin

 

7 West Virginia

10 Iowa

 

2 Villanova

15 New Mexico State

 

South Regional

1 Duke

16 South Dakota State

 

8 Ole Miss

9 Colorado State

 

5 Georgetown

12 Murray State

 

4 Maryland

13 Toledo

 

6 Oklahoma State

11 Illinois

 

3 Utah

14 NC-Central

 

7 SMU

10 LSU

 

2 Wisconsin

15 Northeastern

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 Texas Southern/Albany

 

8 San Diego State

9 Xavier

 

5 Baylor

12 UCLA/Purdue

 

4 Wichita State

12 Valparaiso

 

6 Providence

11 NC State

 

3 Oklahoma

14 Eastern Washington

 

7 Ohio State

10 Georgia

 

2 Arizona

15 Louisiana-Monroe

 

Last Four In: St. John’s, Stanford, Purdue, UCLA

First Four Out: Davidson, Miami (FL), Oregon, Boise State

Next Four Out: Tulsa, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh, Alabama

Bracketology 2/13/15


Here’s my updated bracketology. Once again, it got really tough as I got closer to the final spots. However, the one and two-seed lines were very, very easy to figure out. Check out the full bracket below!

 

Midwest Regional

1 Kentucky

16 St. Francis (NY)/Bucknell

 

8 Xavier

9 Cincinnati

 

5 Maryland

12 Harvard

 

4 Iowa State

13 Bowling Green

 

6 West Virginia

11 Miami (FL)/Illinois

 

3 Utah

14 Iona

 

7 SMU

10 Ole Miss

 

2 Villanova

15 UC Davis

 

South Regional

1 Duke

16 Texas Southern

 

8 Indiana

9 San Diego State

 

5 Oklahoma State

12 Louisiana Tech

 

4 Wichita State

13 Wofford

 

6 Arkansas

11 St. John’s

 

3 Louisville

14 NC-Central

 

7 Texas

10 Michigan State

 

2 Arizona

15 Radford

 

West Regional

1 Gonzaga

16 Albany

 

8 Dayton

9 Colorado State

 

5 Butler

12 Green Bay

 

4 Oklahoma

13 Murray State

 

6 VCU

11 LSU

 

3 North Carolina

14 William & Mary

 

7 Providence

10 Stanford

 

2 Wisconsin

15 Florida Gulf-Coast

 

East Regional

1 Virginia

16 New Mexico State/North Dakota State

 

8 Georgia

9 Iowa

 

5 Baylor

12 UCLA/Seton Hall

 

4 Northern Iowa

13 Stephen F. Austin

 

6 Georgetown

11 Temple

 

3 Notre Dame

14 Eastern Washington

 

7 Ohio State

10 Texas A&M

 

2 Kansas

15 Louisiana-Monroe

 

Last Four In: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, UCLA, Illinois

First Four Out: Purdue, Massachusetts, Old Dominion, Tulsa

Next Four Out: NC State, Boise State, Oregon, George Washington

Bracketology 2/6/15


After a few weeks, it’s crazy to see how much the bracket has changed. Unfortunately, we don’t have a fancy program to show you what the bracket would look like, so we’ll have to settle for a list format until we come up with something better. Either way, here is how I see the field of 68 as of today. Don’t be afraid to disagree!

 

South Regional

1 Kentucky

16 St. Francis (NY)/Colgate

 

8 Dayton

9 Michigan State

 

5 West Virginia

12 Western Kentucky

 

4 Utah

13 Buffalo

 

6 Providence

11 Tulsa

 

3 North Carolina

14 William & Mary

 

7 Georgia

10 Texas

 

2 Wisconsin

15 Albany

 

Midwest

1 Kansas

16 North Dakota State

 

8 Cincinnati

9 Iowa

 

5 Butler

12 Miami (FL)/Old Dominion

 

4 VCU

13 Iona

 

6 Georgetown

11 Colorado State

 

3 Iowa State

14 NC-Central

 

7 Indiana

10 Ole Miss

 

2 Duke

15 High Point

 

West

1 Gonzaga

16 Florida Gulf-Coast

 

8 Oklahoma State

9 Seton Hall

 

5 Northern Iowa

12 Wofford

 

4 Maryland

13 Murray State

 

6 Arkansas

11 St. John’s/Temple

 

3 Louisville

14 Georgia Southern

 

7 San Diego State

10 Stanford

 

2 Villanova

15 UC Davis

 

East

1 Virginia

16 Texas Southern/New Mexico State

 

8 Ohio State

9 LSU

 

5 Oklahoma

12 Green Bay

 

4 Wichita State

13 Stephen F. Austin

 

6 Baylor

11 Xavier

 

3 Notre Dame

14 Yale

 

7 SMU

10 Texas A&M

 

2 Arizona

15 Sacramento State

 

Last Four In: St. John’s, Miami (FL), Temple, Old Dominion

First Four Out: UCLA, Purdue, NC State, George Washington

Next Four Out: Illinois, Alabama, Wyoming, Tennessee

Bracketology 1/20/15


Well, it’s that time of year again–time for bracketologists everywhere to begin stacking up their predictions for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. This is the only bracket I’ll post in the month of January; once the Super Bowl passes, I’ll begin doing weekly brackets every Friday. In the bracket, I selected conference winners based on how the standings look as of today. Here is a breakdown of seeding, plus the link to the full bracket.

Number One Seeds

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga

Number Two Seeds

Arizona, Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin

Number Three Seeds

Iowa State, Maryland, Notre Dame, Louisville

Number Four Seeds

Wichita State, Utah, West Virginia, VCU

Last Four Byes

SMU, Oklahoma State, George Washington, NC State

Last Four In

Miami (FL), St. John’s, Xavier, Tennessee

First Four Out

Colorado State, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Alabama

Next Four Out

Connecticut, Temple, Texas A&M, UCLA

Full Bracket: http://betterbracketmaker.com/#!/8c861150beb45

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 128 other followers